Technical Analysis

The 2-10 year spread has not been positive since July 2022. The most recent high close (most narrow negative spread) is coming near -16 basis point. Today the spread rose to -27.3 basis point which would be its highest close since January 29. Since June 25, the spread has moved from -50 basis points to

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some goldilocks data as the US CPI report came in on the softer side and the US Jobless Claims remained stable. Despite this, the Nasdaq sold off and erased all the gains from the US NFP report. The culprit seemed to be rotation being driven by hedge funds facing short

The USDCAD moved lower on the USD selling immediately after the US CPI data. However the fall in the pair extended down toward key support near the 200 day moving average at 1.3595 and the 38.2% retracement of the range since the December 2023 low at 1.35899. That 38.2% retracement level has stalled the fall

The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $82.10. That is up $0.69 or 0.85%. The gains come after three consecutive losing sessions, and was driven by a bullish OPEC demand forecast and a significant drop in U.S. inventories. The EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown in U.S. oil inventories, surpassing the expected 1.3

The past few days I’ve been posting about the trending GBPJPY. The pair has been trending since it’s most recent swing low back on June 14. Initially, the price needed to get back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Then it needed to stay above those moving averages, and it has (see point

Fundamental Overview Gold erased all the gains from the US NFP report on Monday with some pointing to the news of China remaining on pause for the second consecutive month on gold purchases as the likely culprit. Overall, nothing has changed fundamentally, and the bullish bias should remain intact. As of now, it looks like

Ther GBPJPY continues to skim along the 100 hour MA The GBPJPY has been trending higer since mid-June. That move to the topside has been using the 100 and 200 hour MAs since mid-June as the roadmap or guiding light. When there were some dips below the 100 hour MA, either the 200 hour MA

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

The NZDUSD rallied toward the end of last week’s trading, after sellers had their shot on the break of both the 100/200 day MAs earlier in the week. The move higher initially extended to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, before correcting lower midweek. On Friday, buyers returned after the US jobs report

In the kickstart FX video from July 5, 2024, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Today the US jobs report was mixed with the June non-farm payroll jobs higher than expectations but revisions to the prior two months of offsetting those gains. The unemployment

When the market trends, traders are better served to understand when the market shifts the trend, versus trying to pick a top or bottom depending on which way the market is trending. For the GBPJPY, it has been trending over the last seven or so months. The price has also been above (and comfortably) its

The USDCAD traded to the lowest level since June 3 earlier today, and in doing so tested the lower basement area down to 1.35972. The 200-day moving years was just below that level at 1.35953. The low price today reached 1.3601 as buyers /profit takers leaned against the swing area. The combination of the US

The AUDUSD has been trading mostly between 0.6573 and 0.67134 going back to early May. This week, the price rope to the upside reaching the highest level since early January. Today, the price corrected lower upheld sport against the old highs near 0.6708/0.6713. The price broke higher. The price corrected down to retest the break

As the trading week works toward a close, the NZDUSD is trading near highs for the week. Technically the move to the upside has also breached the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.61116 and the 200 bar moving average on the same chart at 0.61267. The high price today reached 0.6139. As we

The USDCHF is trading to new lows for the week today after rallying into resistance at the start of the trading week (on Monday). That upside resistance came within a swing area between 0.9044 and 0.90565. The subsequent move to the downside did try to find support against its 100-day moving average midweek, but ultimately

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

The USDCHF moved lower after the weaker than expected US data today. However, after breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 0.90134, its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.89972, support buyers came in against the key 100-day moving average at 0.89836. Recall from Friday last week and Monday’s trade this week,