Technical Analysis

The US CPI data today was higher than expected with the headline up 0.2% versus 0.1% expected and the core of 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. That increase the year on year measures as well with the core up 3.3% YoY. Not good. On the other hand is that initial jobless claims equal that’s highest level

Yields in the US have moved higher with the 10-year yield now up 2.8 basis points and the 2-year yield up 3.2 basis points. In addition, the chance of no change in policy in November reached close to 25% today before rotating back down to 20%. It wasn’t long ago that the market was pricing

The USDCHF broke higher after the stronger than expected US jobs report on Friday. The break took the price above the high of the “Red Box” that had confined the pair going back to August 20. On Monday and into yesterday, the price rotated back to the downside and in the process reentered that”Red Box”.

Trading successfully needs to focus on risks and putting the odds of success in your favor. That can manifest in different ways but one way is recognizing a pattern by traders. When I look at the EURGBP, the pattern on the 4-hour chart is simple. In trading today: The 200-bar MA stalled the rally today

The USDCHF moved lower off of a spike high after the US jobs report on Friday. The price backed off into the close and move lower in trading yesterday. That move took the price to the high of the “Red Box” (see chart below) that confined the pair going back to August 20. Support buyers

The USDCAD has broken above the swing area between 1.3615 and 1.3622 (see earlier video). Earlier today, the price extended above its 200-day moving average at 1.36012, and then based against the moving average before moving higher. The buyers continue to push and are now looking toward the high price from September which came in

The week is off and running. What technical levels are in play for the 3 major currency pairs for today/for the trading week? In this video, I outline and explain where traders should focus not only today, but also as the week progresses. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved sharply lower last week and culminated with the

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower in US trading today on the back of the stronger US jobs report. The move lower took the price below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 11 low at 0.6819 and also the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6823. On the

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The RBNZ will meet next week and expectations are a 50 basis point cut (they meet on Wednesday in NZ). The fall today and the price below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.61796. That area will now be close resistance. On the downside the 100 day moving average comes in at 0.6121. The 50%

As we head into the close, the EURUSD is trading near lows for the week. The strong US jobs data today helped to push the pair below a swing area between 1.1001 and 1.1014, and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0995. That area will now be

As the week comes to a close, the USDJPY is trading near the highs for the day and the week. The move to the upside today off the unexpected US jobs report, was able to take the price above a key swing area ceiling around the 147.33 level and also above the 38.2% retracement of

The US dollar has moved to the upside after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The nonfarm payroll was much stronger than expected at 254K versus 140K estimate. That’s a highest level since March when nonfarm payrolls rose by 310K and is the third highest for the year (January rose

The major indices are closing lower on the day with the Dow and the Russell 2000 doing the worst ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -184.73 points or -0.44% at 42011.59 S&P index -9.60 points or -0.17% and 5699.94 NASDAQ index -6.65 points or -0.04% and

The AUDUSD moved above a ceiling from June and July 2023 near 0.6900 last week on it’s way to a high near 0.6941. After trying to hold support near the 0.6900 level on Friday, Monday and part of Tuesday, the sellers started to exert more downside momentum falling to a low of 0.68557 in the

The USDJPY is trading to a new high at 146.47. In doing so, the pair is up testing the high from last Friday at 146.465. Technically, a move above that high with momentum would have traders targeting the tabletop near 147.189 from September 2 and September 3 The move was largely driven earlier in the

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

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