The AUDUSD has been fluctuating mostly between 0.6575 and 0.66896 over the past 6-7 weeks. This prolonged period of oscillation has led to the near convergence of the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, which are now positioned between 0.66318 and 0.66349.
Today, weaker US retail sales data and an RBA rate decision that was slightly less dovish than expected have driven the price above these moving average levels (see blue and green lines on the chart below). This shift has altered the bias in favor of the buyers.
Looking ahead, if the price remains above these moving averages, we can expect more momentum towards the higher end of the current trading range. Conversely, a move back below the moving averages would shift the bias back to the sellers.
Buyers are currently making a play. The question now is whether they can maintain control.
AUDUSD trades back above the 100/200 bar MA on 4-hour chart