The NZDUSD – like the AUDUSD – declined earlier in the week before finding a base and snapping back to the upside. In the process, the pair moved above some key technical levels including both the 200 and 100 day moving averages and the 200 and 100 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart.
Later the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high was broken at 0.61637. That level will be a risk defining level today and going forward. Momentum continued to and through the 50% of the same move down at 0.62028 and up to the swing high of 2024 from February 22 at 0.6217. Buyers turned to sellers against that 2024 high, and the price has rotated to the downside.
What next?
In this video, I outline the risk-defining levels for buyers looking for more upside momentum (or for sellers looking for more confidence the highs in place).