Economists at Credit Suisse remain optimistic on Indian GDP, but that optimism is negative for the trade balance and the Rupee. They forecast USD/INR to trade in a 82-84 range in the short term.
RBI will limit weakness at 84.00 in the short term
“We remain optimistic on the outlook for Indian GDP, but that optimism (and associated high consumption) is negative for the trade balance and for INR. India will continue importing oil to fuel its strong growth. It will also continue importing discounted Russian oil, but that will not blunt the impact of higher oil import volumes.”
“The RBI will likely limit rupee weakness at 84.00 in the short term, but unlike for China, we think the ongoing re-opening in India points to rupee weakness.”
“We forecast USD/INR to trade in a 82-84 range in the short term.”