Deutsche say they expect the UK to escape a recession in 2022 “by the smallest of margins”.
But, after that their outlook is bleak indeed:
- Looking further ahead, we remain more downbeat on the economic outlook.
- Headwinds to the UK economy will almost inevitably push the economy into recession, with global growth slowing, confidence deteriorating, and persistently higher inflation and rising interest rates squeezing disposable incomes further.
- We continue to forecast a 0.5% contraction next year. But risks are tilted to the downside as our forecasts do not account for the near 2% of GDP in fiscal consolidation we expect. If realised, this would push our forecasts firmly to the downside, particularly over the next two years.
GBP update:
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