In August AUD/NZD spent time above 1.10 for the first time since 2018, but the pair has since struggled. Economists at Westpac expect AUD/NZD to extend the fall towards the 1.05 mark in the short-term, however, the pair could rally to 1.12 in 2021.
Key quotes
“Our base case of a risk-friendly ‘Blue Wave’ US election should help AUD/NZD track higher into year-end. Relative commodity prices are also supportive, helping Australia print ongoing trade surpluses.”
“The Aussie has lost some shine on the RBA outlook, with markets braced for not just rate cuts but substantial QE at the Nov meeting. However, the RBNZ continues to prepare for a negative cash rate in 2021, and Westpac expects a cheap bank funding scheme to be announced at the November meeting.”
“Near term, AUD/NZD losses could extend to the 1.05 handle. But into year-end, renewed focus on RBNZ easing in 2021 and a positive global risk mood should help reduce AUD/NZD undervaluation versus fair value, rallying to 1.12.”