Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
The threat of a trade war, escalating geopolitical tensions, and just the right amount of uncertainty has been a good recipe for gold to surge higher since the turn of the year. In January, the challenge was about staying above the 100-day moving average (red line) but with Treasury yields falling now the focus turns towards a possible run to $3,000 next.
We’ve moved past the usual seasonal rush in December and January but even to start February, gold ended up over 2% higher last week. The break of the October high means we’re once again scaling into unchartered territory here.
This is a bull market that’s been running away since October 2023. It does rather surreal at times.
With the dollar finding itself caught in between lower yields and Trump’s tariffs not being as harsh, gold is finding itself in a good spot overall. The tariff threats look to be more of a negotiating tool, stirring up just the right amount of uncertainty in a trade war but not any immediate major escalation.
The punters all have $3,000 locked in for gold at some point this year. But as market players are quickly starting to figure Trump out, we might see gold hit that key mark sooner rather than later.