THe USDCHF felll sharply after yesterday’s US CPI and in the process fell below its 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart below currently at 0.9119). However, the momentum could not be sustained, and a snapback rally ensued with the price moving back to and through the 200-hour moving average and up to the 100-hour moving average (blue line hourly chart below).
Sellers leaned against the 100-hour moving average and have kept a lid on the pair against that level. More recently in the US session a new break of the 200-hour moving average has led to new session lows for the day.
The sellers are making a play.
What is needed to keep the bias at least in the short term in favor of the sellers?
Staying below the 200-hour moving average of 0.9119 is the best case scenario. If that can happen, a retest of the low from yesterday and the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.9077 will be the next major target. Break below that level and traders would start to look down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December low. That level comes in at 0.90209. I would expect there would be good support buyers against that level on a test
. If the 200 hour moving average is rebroken, that should disappoint the sellers and have traders looking toward another retest of the 100 hour moving average and 0.91429. Break above that and the high prices from earlier the week at 0.9200 would be a focused target.