- The US Dollar index plunged below its 20-day SMA, trading below 106.00.
- Soft labor market data seems to be pushing the buck lower.
- If economic data continue coming in soft, markets might continue to bet on a more dovish Fed.
The US Dollar (USD) is under significant selling pressure on Thursday as markets gear up for the release of November’s United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. The Greenback’s decline has been driven by weaker-than-expected labor market signals, including a sharp rise in Initial Jobless Claims and an increase in layoffs reported by the November Challenger Job Cuts data.
Friday’s NFPs from November will set the pace of the USD’s price dynamics for the next sessions.
Daily digest market movers: Buck continues weak ahead of Friday’s NFP
- The Challenger Job Cuts report for November revealed 57,727 layoffs, higher than October’s 55,597, signaling a concerning uptick in job cuts.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29 surged to 224,000, exceeding expectations of 215,000 and up from the previous week’s 215,000.
- The CME FedWatch Tool now suggests a 70% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December 18 meeting.
- As the Fed has stated that it remains data-dependant, if NFPs on Friday show weak results, it might start to fully price in a cut in December’s meeting.
DXY technical outlook: Short-term weakness intensifies, 20-day SMA gone
The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), marking a critical technical setback that has weakened its short-term outlook. Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are nearing negative territory, underscoring the growing bearish momentum.
Key support levels now lie at 105.50 and 105.00, while resistance may emerge at 106.50 and 107.00. With the DXY losing steam, market participants will closely watch Friday’s NFP data for any signs of reversal or further deterioration.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.