As the North America session begins the USD is lower, US yields are lower and the broader indices are lower (although the Dow is trading above and below unchanged).
Crude oil is marginally higher after an up and down day on Tuesday. Gold is higher after rebounding by 0.31% yesterday a day after plunging 3.35% on Monday (today it is up around 0.75% at the start of the day). Finally, Bitcoin is higher by $1100 or 1.22% at $93050 currently. The price fell 3 of the last 4 days after pushing Bitcoin 100K on Friday (peaked at $99800).
The European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel has indicated that there is limited scope for further rate cuts, suggesting a gradual move toward neutral rates (estimated to be in the range of 2-3%) rather than lowering them further. Schnabel emphasized that the ECB should not adopt an overly accommodative stance and prefers a gradual approach to rate adjustments. She highlighted the need to see services inflation decline, while also noting that the impact of previous tightening measures is diminishing. Schnabel believes current rates may already be close to neutral, with the economy showing signs of stagnation but no immediate risk of recession. The hawkish comments sent the EURUSD higher.
The US economic calendar is chop-a-bloc with releases ahead of the Thenksgiving holiday tomorrow:
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8:30 AM:
- Prelim GDP q/q: Forecast 2.8% | Previous 2.8%
- Prelim GDP Price Index q/q: Forecast 1.8% | Previous 1.8%
- Unemployment Claims: Forecast 216K | Previous 213K. Continuing Claims Forecast 1.908M | Previous 1.908M
- Durable Goods Orders m/m: Forecast 0.5% | Previous-0.7%
- Core Durable Goods Orders m/m: Forecast 0.2% | Previous0.5%
- Goods Trade Balance: Forecast -102.2B | Previous -108.2B
- Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m: Forecast 0.0% | Previous-0.2%
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10:00 AM:
- Core PCE Price Index m/m: Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.3%, PCE price index Forecast 0.2%| Previous 0.2%
- Pending Home Sales m/m: Forecast-2.0% | Previous7.4%
- Personal Income m/m: Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.3%
- Personal Spending m/m: Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.5%
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10:30 AM:
- Crude Oil Inventories: Forecast -0.605M | Previous 0.545M
- Gasoline: Forecast -0.046M| Previous 2.054M
Looking at the US debt market yields are lower:
- 2 Year 4.206%, -4.7 basis points
- 5 year 4.126%, -5.3 basis points
- 10 year 4.257%, -4.4 basis points
- 30 year 4.446%, -3.3 basis points
IN the premarket for the US stocks (7:44 am ET), the broader indices are lower. Dell disappointed after the close helping to push prices lower:
- Dow, Unchanged. Yesterday the index rose 123 points or 0.28%.
- S&P, – 7.88 points. Yesterday the index rose 34.26 points or 0.57%.
- Nasdaq -50 points. Yesterday the index rose 119.46 points or 0.63%
Dell is trading down $-16.79 or -11.75%.
Taking a look at the technical driving the FX market:
EURUSD: The EURUSD closed yesterday near its falling 100 hour moving average currently at 1.0477 . In the Asian session late price traded above and below that moving average with most of the price action above the falling moving average. In the European session, the Schnable comments pushed the price higher. The price extended above its 200-hour moving average at 1.0520 to a high of 1.05395, just short of the high for the week at 1.0544 (reached yesterday). The price has traded above and below that moving average of the last four or so trading hours. However, the current hourly bar has found support against that moving average level giving the buyers the tilt. If the price can stay above that moving average, the high for the week at 1.0544 and then the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range is the next key target at 1.05628.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD tested the 100 hour MA into the close and in the Asian market. The price moved above the MA (currently at 1.25712) with momentum and ran up to the 200 hour MA at 1.26129. THe price backed off modestly, but found support buyers near 1.2596, based and is trading to new highs into the US session. That move has taken the price back above the 200hour MA and highs from yesterday and Monday at 1.2613 in the run higher. The high just reached 1.26185. The easy technical call is stay above the 200 hour MA/highs from Monday and Tuesday near 1.2613 is the best case scenario for the buyers. Buyers who see more upside, could risk down to 1.2596 (the low of the swing area on the chart below – see red circles). A move below that level would disappoint the buyers. On the topside, 1.2660 followed by the natural resistance AND the 38.2% near 1.2700 is the next key targets.
USDJPY: The USDJPY fell sharply yesterday and closed below a swing area between 153.26 to 153.459 (bearish tilt). That momentum continued today. The fall below the 200-hour MA on the 4-hour chart found more sellers and then the break below the 200-day MA at 151.982 was more bearish as well. The price fell below the low from early November at 151.275 but just barely. The low reached 151.22. Falling below that level would open the door for more selling. On a rebound the 200 day MA at 151.983 would be eyed as solid resistance. Moving back above that moving average would disappoint the sellers on the break (the price has been above the 200 day MA since NOvember 6.
NZDUSD: The RBNZ cut rates by 50 basis points as expected, but the market took the decision to push the NZDUSD higher in a “buy the fact” move. The USD selling helped contribute to the upside as did technicals. Technically, the price moved above the 100 hour MA and then the 200 hour MA (currently at 0.58478 and 0.58628 respectively). The corrective move and basing near the 200 hour MA gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. The price has moved above the 38.2% of the November range and into a swing area between 0.58919 and 0.5903. The falling 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 0.59053. Sellers leaning against the levels has slowed the rise. Getting and staying above the 0.5900 to 0.5905 would increase the bullish bias for the pair. ON the downside the 200 hour MA at 0.5863 is now suppport. A move back below that level would disappoint the buyers. So buyers and sellers battle it out between support and resistance as the buyers make a play today.