It’s been a rather lackluster last few sessions in Europe in terms of headlines. But hey, things might take a different turn today. On the agenda, we do have PMI data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone to make up for it. That will at least keep things interesting especially if the data continues to surprise to the downside.
As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut by the ECB for December. The question now is whether we will see a 25 bps move or a 50 bps one. €STR futures are showing ~83% odds of a 25 bps move but personally, I’d pin those odds closer to 65% to 70% at this stage (as per the money market). The remainder are tied to a 50 bps move.
The PMI data will keep the euro in focus in the session ahead. Besides that, the spotlight for broader markets remains on bonds. Higher yields have been keeping investors fairly nervous in the last few days, with stocks taking some off the top. USD/JPY is also staying in focus as such, with the pair down slightly today by 0.3% to 152.25 for now.
0645 GMT – France October business confidence
0715 GMT – France October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
0730 GMT – Germany October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
0800 GMT – Eurozone October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
0830 GMT – UK October flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI
1000 GMT – UK October CBI trends total orders
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.