The USDCAD buyers remain in control in what has been an up-and-down trading week that did see the pair move to the highest level since August 6th.
At the price high this week, the USDCAD moved into a swing area going back to the end of July early August between 1.38337 and 1.38475. Sellers leaned against the area and pushed the price back to the downside.
The subsequent move lower which bottomed in the early hours of yesterday’s trade did find support buyers against the broken 61.8% attrition of the range since the August high. That level came at 1.37449.
Since and the price has rebounded toward the middle of the low and high for the week.
There is a swing area between 1.3786 and 1.3792 which the price action has been holding support against in trading today.
Looking at the hourly chart below, also near that area is the 100-hour moving average at 1.37864. That combination increases the levels importance going forward at least in the short term. If the price were to move below 1.3786 level, I would not be surprised to see buyers turn to sellers in the short-term with the 200-hour moving average 1.3752 and the low for the week at 1.37449 as the next target.
Absent that, and the buyers remain in firm control.
Next week the Bank of Canada will meet with expectations of a 50 basis point cut in rates. A Reuters poll yesterday of had 19 of 29 economists predicting a 50 basis point cut, with the other 10 looking for 25 basis points. So there is some debate.