A week ago today, the USDCHF made a break to the upside and out of the “Red Box” that had confined the pair going back to August 20. The US jobs report was the catalyst for the move higher, but by Monday, the price fell back to the high of that “red box” and even moved within the topside edges of it.
Sellers should have entered on that breach, but the momentum was very modest, and sellers turned back to buyers into Tuesday and reached session – and week – highs on late Wednesday and into Thursday’s trade. Those highs reached a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. The high price reached 0.86067.
Yesterday, control returned to sellers and moved the price toward the middle of the trading range this week. The current price is trading at 0.8576.
What next?
This week the price action in the USDCHF upped the trading range to a new higher level.
- At the low, the old ceiling did its job of holding support (give or take a few pips) at 0.85368. Today – and going into next week – staying above that level is required to keep the buyers in play. If the price moves back into the Red Box, the sellers are back in control, and I would expect the price to move back down toward the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart.
- On the topside, the swing area going back to the first half of August did its job of holding resistance up to 0.8619. Today- and going into next week – moving above that level is required to add to the bullish bias. Also of importance is getting above the 38.2% retracement at 0.86312. If that level can be broken, it opens the upside for further momentum.
So instead of a trading range between 0.8400 and 0.8536, the new range is 0.8536 to 0.8619 and traders going forward are back to looking for the next shove. Is it going to be higher or lower?