Hurricane Milton’s once-in-a-century potential could cause damage of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to leading Wall Street analysts.
That would be on top of the carnage already left behind by Hurricane Helene, posing a potential record-breaking path of wreckage.
“While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. “A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”
The extent of the potential is hard to pin down and will depend on timing and location, with a landfall closer to Fort Myers being less costly.
For a historical comparison, analysts need only to look back two years, when Hurricane Ian hit near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left behind more than $50 billion in losses. Ian was considered a 1-in-20-year event.
“Should Milton’s path through the more developed Tampa region hold, potential losses could be greater,” Kinar said.
Milton is currently at Category 4 as well, though it could weaken by the time its full force is felt.
Wells Fargo noted that the “market seems to be factoring in a loss of over $50 billion (greater than Ian) at this point.” The firm set a wide range for potential damage, from $10 billion to $100 billion.
The region already has been rocked — Helene barreled through the region 12 days ago, and left behind devastation that Moody’s on Tuesday estimated at some $11 billion. In addition to the property damage, Moody’s figures that the National Flood Insurance Program likely will see losses approaching $2 billion.
The firm’s analysts have not yet estimated potential damage from Milton.
“Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season thus far, though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s.
Moody’s also noted that many in the worst-affected regions of where Helene hit do not have flood insurance, “meaning most of the damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will far outweigh insured losses,” said Firas Saleh, the firm’s director of U.S. inland flood models.
Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but was still carrying winds of 145 mph. It is expected to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning and bring 10- to 15-foot storm surges to Tampa Bay.
While the danger and damage to the region are expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same danger to adjoining states that Helene pummeled.