The AUDUSD moved above a ceiling from June and July 2023 near 0.6900 last week on it’s way to a high near 0.6941. After trying to hold support near the 0.6900 level on Friday, Monday and part of Tuesday, the sellers started to exert more downside momentum falling to a low of 0.68557 in the US session yesterday.
Technically on the daily chart, the inability to stay above the 0.6900 area put the sellers in play on the daily chart despite the price still being near highs (and highs going back to June/July 2023). Why? The technical break higher failed.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the move higher and above 0.6900 area, took the price to a high of 0.6941.
The ups and downs from that high tried to hold support between 0.68969 and 0.6907 (yellow area and red numbered circles on the hourly chart below), but ultimately sellers prevailed and pushed lower in the US session yesterday.
The fall has also taken the price below the 100 hour MA (blue line) currently at 0.6903.
On the fall yesterday, the price also fell below the 200 hour MA (green line) but that break could not be sustained and the price rebounded higher.
Today, the price action has seen some buying above the 100-hour MA, but failed again (see chart below). More recently, the price has been finding sellers near the 100-hour MA and near the 0.6900 level (from the daily chart).
What the sellers have not been able to do to take more control, is get and stay below the 200 hour MA. If that can be done, the sellers would wrestle more control, and likely lead to more selling momentum.
For now, however, the technicals are neutral, as the sellers put themselves back in play on the hourly and the daily chart, but buyers are also holding onto their control above the rising 200 hour MA.
That neutrality would be broken if the price can get and stay below the 200 hour MA (more bearish) or if the price can get and stay above the 100 hour MA and topside swing area