Fundamental
Overview
Yesterday, we got two strong
US data releases as the Jobless
Claims and Retail
Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was
US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move.
The reason is that the
risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback as the market focuses
on positive global growth. Of course, the reasons to sell the USD are not that
strong and that’s why in the big picture the major currency pairs have been
mostly trading in a range for a year.
But in the short term, the
changes in sentiment are influencing the price action and the US Dollar
performance.
On the AUD side,
this week we got a strong Australian
labour market report which gave the Aussie a boost with the RBA keeping its
hawkish stance.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
AUDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD recently pulled back to test a key zone around the 0.6560 level
and bounced strongly following the strong Australian labour market report. The next
target for the buyers should be around the 0.6713 level where we will likely
find the sellers stepping in with a defined risk above the level to position for
a drop back into the 0.6560 level.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance
around the 0.6640 level where the price got rejected from several times in the
past days. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase
the bullish bets into the 0.6713 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely lean on the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a
break below the 0.6560 zone.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action which has been mostly rangebound.
There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe other than waiting for a
breakout on either side. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.