Fundamental
Overview
The USD last week finished
slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without
inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for
interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk
sentiment going forward.
The NZD, on the other hand,
got pressured mainly because of the bouts of risk-off flows here and there. The
mood in the market seems to be gradually improving though and that should
support the Kiwi going forward.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
NZDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced and consolidated near the key support around the 0.6082 level where we have also the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
The buyers continue to step
in around the lows to position for a rally back into the 0.6217 resistance. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish momentum and position for a drop into the 0.60 handle
next.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
NZDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound between the 0.6082 support
and the 0.6217 resistance. These will be the key levels that the market will
need to break to start a more sustained trend. For now, we could keep bouncing
around as the market participants continue to “play the range”.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
NZDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 0.6145 level where the
price got rejected from several times. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into the
0.6217 level.
The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely keep on leaning on that resistance to position for a drop
back into the 0.6082 support targeting a break below it. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report where the market will be
focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE.