Weekly Market Recap (15-19 April)

Over the weekend,
Iran launched its retaliatory attack against Israel with drones and ballistic
missiles. There were no casualties and 99% of the attack was neutralised. Iran
eventually said that the matter could be deemed concluded. There was some initial
risk on sentiment, but things turned around pretty soon as Israel pledged to
retaliate. Eventually, Israel did retaliate on Friday night although the attack
seemed limited based on various reports and Iran downplayed the airstrikes.
This should have put an end to this episode, and we should go back focusing on
macro.

ECB’s Villeroy
(neutral – voter) confirmed the incoming rate cuts:

• Barring a surprise,
  we should decide on the first cut at our next meeting on June 6.
• I’m more confident
  about the downward trajectory of inflation.
• Our cut early June
  will have to be followed by other cuts by year-end.

The New Zealand
March Services PMI plummeted back into contraction:

• Services PMI 47.5 vs. 53.0 prior.
• Long-term average is 53.4.

BNZ’s Senior Economist
Doug Steel:

“Combining
today’s weak PSI activity with last week’s similarly weak PMI activity, yields
a composite reading that would be consistent with GDP falling below by more
than 2% compared to year earlier levels. That is much weaker than what folk are
forecasting”.

The PBoC left the MLF
rate unchanged at 2.50% as expected.

ECB’s Simkus (hawk
– voter) said that a rate cut was also possible in July.

The Eurozone
February Industrial Production came in line with expectations:

• Industrial Production
  M/M 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and -3.0% prior (revised from -3.2%).
• Industrial
  Production Y/Y -6.4% vs. -5.7% expected and -6.6% prior (revised from
  -6.7%).

ECB’s Rehn (hawk –
voter) confirmed that rates could be lowered in June if inflation slows as
expected:

• Inflation is
  converging towards ECBs 2% target.
• Monetary restraint
  is continuing to reduce inflation and impact the real economy.
• Although ECB rates
  are at levels that are making substantial contributions to ongoing
  disinflation process, we no longer see need to maintain them at current
  levels for a long duration.
• Provided we are
  confident inflation will continue converging to our 2% target in a
  sustained way, the time will be right in June to start easing the monetary
  policy stance and to cut rates.
• This assumes there
  will be no further setbacks in the geopolitical situation and thus in
  energy prices.

ECB’s Kazimir
(hawk – voter) confirmed a rate cut in June but stayed clear from
pre-committing to anything beyond then:

• ECB can cut rates in
  June given persistent fall in inflation; restriction can be gradually
  reduced.
• ECB not committing
  to any policy path beyond June.
• Economic recovery
  taking hold, will accelerate in H2.

ECB’s Lane (dove –
voter) stressed about the need to get wage growth in check:

• Deceleration in wage
  growth is necessary to get inflation to target.
• Wage pressures are
  gradually moderating but remain elevated.
• While services
  inflation should decline somewhat in the near term, it is expected to
  remain relatively elevated for most of the year.
• Headline inflation
  is expected to fluctuate around current levels in the near term.
• It should be
  recognized that the current phase of disinflation is necessarily bumpy.

The US March
Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive
revisions to the prior figures:

• Retail Sales M/M
  0.7% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.9% prior (revised from 0.6%).
• Retail Sales Y/Y
  4.0% vs. 2.1% prior (revised from 1.5%).
• Ex-autos M/M 1.1%
  vs. 0.5% expected and 0.6% prior (revised from 0.3%).
• Control group 1.1% vs.
  0.4% expected and 0.3% prior (revised from 0.0%).
• Retail sales ex gas
  and autos 1.0% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%).

Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter) didn’t change his
view about inflation as he still sees a path to the 2% target:

• Overall economy will
  continue to grow this year around 2%.
• Consumer spending
  has been strong.
• There are tailwinds
  from the supply side of the economy.
• I don’t see the
  recent inflation data as turning point.
• Markets are taking
  slower inflation progress into account.
• I’m data dependent
  as always.

The US March NAHB Housing Market Index came in line
with expectations:

• NAHB Housing Market
  Index 51 vs. 51 expected and 51 prior.

Fed’s Daly (neutral – voter) didn’t add anything new
on the monetary policy front as she just echoed others in supporting a patient
stance:

• Recent inflation
  data was not surprising.
• Inflation bumps
  along the way isn’t particularly surprising.
• Don’t want to end up
  with too-strong, or too-weak policy response.
• Worst thing to do is
  act urgently when urgency isn’t necessary.
• Inflation above
  target, need to be confident it’s on the way to target before can react.
• No urgency to cut
  rates.
• Can’t just look at
  published information, that’s backwards looking.
• Economy growing at a
  solid rate, labour market is still strong, inflation above target.
• Our progress on
  inflation has been significant, but we are still not there yet.
• We don’t know if
  R-star (more commonly written by the economists as r*) has risen.
• It’s reasonable to
  think r* is between 0.5 and 1.
• Labor force supply
  increase would be an upside surprise, but I can’t count on it to make
  policy.

The Chinese Q1 GDP beat expectations:

• GDP Y/Y 5.3% vs.
  5.0% expected and 5.2% prior.
• GDP Q/Q 1.6% vs.
  1.2% prior (revised from 1.0%).

The Chinese March Retail Sales missed expectations:

• Retail Sales Y/Y
  3.1% vs. 4.5% expected and 5.5% prior.

The Chinese March Industrial Production missed
expectations:

• Industrial
  Production 4.5% vs. 5.4% expected and 7.0% prior.

The UK Labour Market report missed expectations
although the wage growth figures remained strong:

• Unemployment rate
  4.2% vs 4.0% expected and 4.0% prior (revised from 3.9%).
• Employment change
  -156K vs. 58K expected and -21K prior.
• Average weekly
  earnings 5.6% vs. 5.5% expected and 5.6% prior.
• Average weekly
  earnings (ex-bonus) 6.0% vs. 5.8% expected and 6.1% prior.
• March payrolls
  change -67K vs. -18K prior (revised from 20K).

The Canadian March CPI came mostly in line with
expectations across the board with further easing in the underlying inflation
measures:

• CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs. 2.8%
  prior.
• CPI M/M 0.6% vs.
  0.7% expected and 0.3% prior.
• Core CPI Y/Y 2.0%
  vs. 2.1% prior.
• Core CPI M/M 0.5% vs. 0.1% prior.
• Core CPI M/M SA
  -0.1% vs. 0.0% prior (revised from -0.1%).
• Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y
  3.1% vs. 3.2% expected and 3.2% prior.
• Median CPI Y/Y 2.8% vs.
  3.0% expected and 3.0% prior (revised from 3.1%).
• Common CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs.
  3.1% prior.

The US March Housing Starts and Building Permits
missed expectations:

• Housing Starts.1.321M
  vs. 1.487M expected and 1.549M prior (revised from 1.521M).
• Housing starts M/M
  -14.7% vs. 12.7% prior (revised from 10.7%).
• Building Permits
  1.458M vs. 1.514M expected and 1.523M prior (revised from 1.524M).
• Building Permits M/M
  -4.3% vs. 2.3% prior (revised from 2.4%).

Fed’s Jefferson (neutral – voter) didn’t add anything
new but between the lines the Fed is saying that the bar for a rate hike is
very high, so if inflation were to be more persistent, the Fed will just hold
rates steady for longer:

• If incoming data
  suggest inflation is more persistent than I currently expect, it will be
  appropriate to hold in place current restrictive stance of policy for
  longer.
• Outlook is still
  quite uncertain.
• Recent readings on
  both job gains in inflation have come in higher than expected.
• In March, headline
  PCE was 2.7% over past 12 months based on Fed staff estimates core PCE at
  2.8%.
• Despite considerable
  progress in lowering inflation, job not yet done.
• My baseline outlook
  remains inflation will decline further with policy rate at current level.
• My baseline outlook
  is also for labour market remaining strong, demand and supply continuing
  to rebalance.
• Compared to Q4 2023
  I expect Q1 economic growth to slow down but remain solid as indicated by
  February and March retail sales data.
• I am fully committed
  to getting inflation back to 2%.

The US March Industrial Production came in line with
expectations:

• Industrial
  Production M/M 0.4% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.1%).
• Industrial Production
  Y/Y 0.0% vs. -0.3% prior (revised from -0.2%).
• Capacity utilization
  78.4% vs. 78.5% expected and 78.2% prior (revised from 78.3%).

ECB President Lagarde
(neutral – voter) reaffirmed the commitment to cut rates in June barring any surprise:

• We will cut rates
  soon, barring any major surprises.
• Geopolitical events
  impact on commodity prices not very significant so far.
• We are observing a
  disinflationary process that is moving according to our expectations.
• Subject to no development
  of additional shock, it will be time to moderate restrictive monetary
  policy in reasonably short order.
• We are not
  pre-committing to a path of rate cuts.
• There is still huge
  uncertainty out there.
• ECB must be cautious
  and must look at the data to confirm our perspective.
• Declines to comment
  on market pricing for three rate cuts in 2024.
• We believe that
  rates are restrictive enough and they are producing an effect on
  inflation.
• April and May will
  be a key confidence on inflation.
• The path to 2%
  inflation will be bumpy. The rate decline is not linear.
• We expect inflation
  to fluctuate around the line that is currently going lower.
• What is most
  different between the US and EU is the behaviour of the consumer.
• EU consumers are
  very cautious and continue to save.
• The American
  consumer consumes, and the level of savings is less than EU.
• Fiscal policy was
  significantly higher in the US and targeted toward the consumers.
• We are data
  dependent; we are not Fed dependent.
• We have to be
  attentive to exchange rates and the value of the currency.
• Lagarde refuses to
  comment on whether the EURUSD goes to parity is a good thing or a bad
  thing.
• We will
  single-mindedly be focused of price stability and 2% target.
• Growth in Europe
  mediocre, much slower than in the US.
• We are clearly seen
  to mid signs of recovery.
• Euro area inflation
  is a different animal than in the US.
• We monitor the
  exchange rate.
• It is obvious that
  exchange rates may have an impact on inflation.

Fed Chair Powell (neutral
– voter) confirmed that the recent inflation data did not give the Fed greater
confidence and therefore they will keep rates steady for longer. There’s a
strong message that the Fed will just keep rates steady for longer if needed
and the bar for a rate hike is very high:

• Recent data shows a
  lack of progress on inflation this year.
• Twelve-month core
  PCE was little changed in March, according to estimates.
• Labor market moving
  into better balance.
• The performance of
  the US has been quite strong.
• Recent data have not
  given greater confidence in inflation.
• We took a cautious
  approach to not overreact to declines last year.
• Restrictive policy
  needs further time to work.
• The current
  situation is not the standard case of inflation driven by overheated
  demand.

The New Zealand Q1 CPI
came in line with expectations:

• CPI Q/Q 0.6% vs. 0.6%
  expected and 0.5% prior.
• CPI Y/Y 4.0% vs.
  4.7% prior.

The UK March CPI beat
expectations:

• CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs. 3.1%
  expected and 3.4% prior.
• CPI M/M 0.6% vs.
  0.4% expected and 0.6% prior.
• Core CPI 4.2% vs.
  4.1% expected and 4.5% prior.
• Core CPI M/M 0.6% vs. 0.6% prior.
• Services CPI Y/Y
  6.0% vs. 5.8% expected and 6.1% prior.

BoE’s Greene (hawk –
voter) is still a bit worried about high wage growth and doesn’t see any
imminent rate cut:

• We’re closer to
  target than just a few months ago.
• News has been encouraging.
• Achieving inflation
  target has been a bumpy ride, it was always going to be, and that last
  mile is the hardest work.
• What’s going on in
  the Middle East does pose a risk.
• Latest data shows
  pretty high wage growth, though moving in the right direction.
• Latest inflation
  data surprised on the upside a little.
• Wage growth in
  services price inflation is not consistent with this sustainable return to
  2% inflation.
• UK labour market
  loosening, but still remains pretty tight. We expect inflation to return
  to target in coming months, but don’t expect it to stay there.
• I don’t think a rate
  cut is imminent.

ECB’s Cipollone (dove –
voter) didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front:

• We see some signs of
  economic recovery (citing PMI data).
• Expects for rest of
  year inflation at this level more or less.
• Base effects are due
  to unwinding of cost-of-living measures.
• We expect inflation
  resuming path to 2% next year, at target by mid-2025.
• If incoming data in
  June and July confirm that confidence it will be appropriate to remove
  some restrictive measures imposed in 2023.
• Middle East
  conflict’s impact on energy costs is a major risk.
• As recovery unfolds,
  we expect productivity to go up.

ECB’s Nagel (hawk –
voter) supports a June rate cut although he’s less confident than others:

• Price pressure in
  euro zone could continue for some time.
• Is not completely
  clear if inflation rate will reach 2% target next year and stay at that
  level.
• Expect slight growth
  in the German economy in 2024.
• A June cut is
  looking increasingly likely, but there are still some caveats.
• Certain inflation
  data still looks higher than desired.
• Core inflation is
  still high. Service inflation is high.

ECB’s Schnabel (hawk –
voter) didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front although she
stressed that they are paying attention to actual inflation not just forecasts:

• Financial market
  repricing of rates over last few months shows investors expect
  policymakers, at least for now, to continue to pay more attention to
  actual inflation outcomes.
• It could be prudent
  to continue to consider the baseline forecast as just on communication,
  even as inflation continues to fall.
• Regular inconsistent
  use of alternative scenarios could better convey the uncertainty facing
  central banks.

BoE’s Bailey (neutral –
voter) remains confident about the disinflationary path and expects the next
month’s inflation data to show a strong drop:

• We are pretty much
  on track for where we thought we would be in February on inflation.
• I expect next
  month’s inflation number will show quite a strong drop.
• The effect of the
  Mideast conflict is less than feared.

The Federal Reserve
released the Beige Book:

Below are the highlights
of the overall economic activity report:

• Economic Expansion: Activity expanded
  slightly overall since late February, with 10 out of 12 Districts
  reporting slight to modest growth.
• Consumer Spending: There was a
  minimal overall increase in consumer spending, though the results were
  mixed across different districts and categories.
• Discretionary
  Spending Weakness: Several reports highlighted a weakness in
  discretionary spending due to high price sensitivity among consumers.
• Auto Spending: Improved
  inventories and dealer incentives notably boosted auto spending in some
  Districts, while sales remained sluggish elsewhere.
• Tourism: Tourism activity
  modestly increased on average, though the extent varied significantly
  across reports.
• Manufacturing: There was a slight
  decline in manufacturing activity, with only three Districts reporting
  growth.
• Nonfinancial
  Services and Bank Lending: Nonfinancial services saw slight increases on
  average, while bank lending was roughly flat.
• Construction and
  Real Estate: Residential construction and home sales showed
  some improvement on average, whereas nonresidential construction was flat
  and commercial real estate leasing declined slightly.
• Economic Outlook: Contacts were
  cautiously optimistic about the future, on balance.

Below are the summarized
highlights of employment from the report:

• Overall Employment
  Growth: Employment grew at a slight pace, with nine
  Districts experiencing very slow to modest increases, while the remaining
  three reported no changes.
• Labor Supply and
  Quality: Most Districts observed increases in labor
  supply and the quality of job applicants, improving the overall employment
  landscape.
• Employee Retention
  and Reductions: Several Districts noted improved employee
  retention, though some also reported staff reductions at certain firms.
• Persistent Shortages: Many Districts
  faced ongoing shortages of qualified applicants for specific roles such as
  machinists, trades workers, and hospitality workers.
• Wage Growth: Wages grew
  moderately in eight Districts, while the others saw only slight to modest
  increases. It was noted that annual wage growth rates have returned to
  historical averages in multiple districts.
• Future Expectations: The general
  expectation is that labor demand and supply will remain relatively stable,
  with modest job gains continuing and wage growth moderating back to
  pre-pandemic levels.

Below are the summarized
highlights regarding prices from the report:

• Modest Price
  Increases: Overall, price increases remained modest and
  consistent with the pace observed in the previous report.
• Impact of
  Disruptions: Despite shipping delays caused by disruptions
  in the Red Sea and the collapse of Baltimore’s Key Bridge, these incidents
  have not led to widespread price increases.
• Energy Prices: Six Districts
  reported moderate increases in energy prices, indicating some upward
  pressure in this sector.
• Insurance Rate Hikes: Contacts in
  several Districts observed sharp increases in insurance rates for both
  businesses and homeowners.
• Weaker Pricing Power: Many firms noted a
  significant weakening in their ability to pass on cost increases to
  consumers, which has led to reduced profit margins.
• Strain on Nonprofits: Inflation has also
  strained nonprofit entities, with some reporting service reductions as a
  result.
• Inflation
  Expectations: On balance, contacts expect inflation to remain
  steady at a slow pace, although some manufacturers in a few Districts see
  potential upside risks to near-term inflation, both in input and output
  prices.

ECB’s Centeno (dove –
voter) just confirmed the June rate cut and added that the number of cuts will
depend on the incoming data:

• If we have to cut
  rates before Fed, so be it.
• Number of cuts will
  depend on incoming data.
• First cut in June is
  at this point very likely.
• After June we’ll
  look at data, especially growth and employment.
• Even after 25 or 50
  basis points of cuts we’ll still have a tight monetary policy stance.
• I don’t know anybody
  who says neutral rate is above 3%.
• How fast should we
  get to neutral? We’ve got time.
• Many shocks we’re
  facing are deflationary, such as China’s participation in global trade.

ECB’s Vasle (hawk –
voter) is basically in line with market’s expectations of three rate cuts this
year if everything goes to plan:

• We should be much
  closer to 3% towards the end of the year if everything goes according to
  plan.
• Cautioned, though,
  that he saw some worrying developments in the Middle East.

Fed’s Mester (neutral –
voter) echoed her colleagues in saying that if inflation were to persist, they
will just keep rates steady for longer:

• We want to get more
  information before we can say inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%.
• This year inflation
  is a little higher than expected.
• We want to be pretty
  confident inflation is on this downward trajectory.
• We have strong labor
  markets, solid economic growth.

• I still expect
  inflation to come down.

• If inflation isn’t
  moving down to 2% we could keep rates where they are for longer.

• At some point we
  will start to ease policy.

• We don’t have to
  ease policy in a hurry.
• Watching risks to
  both of the Fed’s mandates.

Fed’s Bowman (hawk – voter)
continues to question the recent inflation dynamics and whether the current
policy is sufficiently restrictive:

• Progress on
  inflation has slowed and perhaps stalled.
• Economic conditions are strong.
• Strength of consumer
  spending tied to ongoing job growth.
• Current monetary
  policy is restrictive; time will tell if it is “sufficiently”
  restrictive.
• Consumers may be
  trading down to lower goods; but also spending large amounts of money on
  things like travel to see eclipse.

The Australian March Labour
Market report missed expectations although the unemployment rate came in better
than expected:

• Employment Change -6.6K
  vs. 7.2K expected and 117.6K prior (revised from 116.5K).
• Unemployment Rate 3.8%
  vs. 3.9% expected and 3.7% prior.
• Full-time employment
  27.9K vs. 79.4K prior (revised from 78.2K).
• Part-time employment
  -34.5K vs. 38.2K prior (revised from 38.2K).
• Participation Rate 66.6%
  vs. 66.7% prior.

BoJ’s Noguchi didn’t add
much in terms of forward guidance, but he seems to be one of the most dovish
ones:

• Japan is seeing wage
  hikes unseen in the past via spring wage negotiations.
• Essential to
  continue to maintain appropriate balance between labour supply and demand through
  the continuation of its accommodative monetary policy to achieve the
  2% price target.
• Japan must achieve
  positive wage-inflation cycle as soon as possible and for this, service
  prices must keep rising.
• Last year’s spring
  labour-management negotiations have triggered an unprecedented wave of
  wage increases.
• Another factor that
  is key is for small manufacturers to be able to smoothly pass on rising
  wage costs to prices.

• If wage hike
  translates into higher prices, that will show through rise in service
  prices and this trend is clearly appearing.

• Focus now is on the
  pace at which the policy rate will be adjusted and at what level it will
  eventually stabilize.
• Long-term neutral
  interest rate is highly likely to be lower than that of other countries.

• At some point in
  future, it’s desirable to start shrinking BoJ’s balance sheet.
• Steps BoJ decided in
  March is a move toward this direction of future shrinking of BoJ’s balance
  sheet.

• I dissented to BoJ’s
  March decision since I thought it would be appropriate to maintain JGB
  buying under negative rate.

• Rise in service
  prices not driven mainly by wage hikes yet.
• Japan’s economy in a
  moderate recovery trend, but recently growth has stalled.
• Some big firms are
  benefiting from a weaker yen.
• The likelihood of
  reaching 2% inflation target is rising.
• Main scenario is
  that future rate hikes are likely to be slow, depends on economic data.
• Prolonged yen
  weakness could have various impacts on wages and prices.
• Have to take that
  into account when deciding monetary policy.
• Cannot say whether
  there will be another rate hike this year.

The US Jobless Claims
beat expectations:

• Initial Claims 212K
  vs. 215K expected and 212K prior (revised from 211K).
• Continuing Claims
  1812K vs. 1818K expected and 1810K prior (revised from 1817K).

Fed’s Williams (neutral –
voter) added more to his previous comments earlier in the week as he said that
if the data called for higher rates, the Fed would hike:

• I don’t feel an
  urgency to cut rates.
• The Fed is data
  dependent, and the data has been good.
• We have a strong
  economy.
• Economic imbalances
  have been reduced.
• Fed rates haven’t
  caused the economy to slow too much.
• Monetary policy is
  in a good place.
• Eventually interest
  rates will need to be lower.
• Rate cuts will be
  determined by economic activity.
• Fed rate hike is not
  my baseline forecast.
• If data called for
  higher rates, Fed would hike.
• Fed has work to do
  to lower inflation.
• Fed 2% inflation
  goal is the right objective.
• Critical for the Fed
  to achieve its 2% inflation goal.
• Economy back on
  pre-pandemic growth track.
• Worth watching
  performance of China’s economy.

The US Leading Economic
Index (LEI) missed expectations in March:

• LEI -0.3% vs. -0.1%
  expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%).

“February’s uptick in the
U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March,” said
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The
Conference Board. “Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building
permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial
unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline. The LEI’s six-month and
annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed.
Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the
U.S. economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates, and
persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in
2024. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid
expansion in the second half of 2023. As consumer spending slows, US GDP growth
is expected to moderate over Q2 and Q3 of this year.”

BoJ’s Ueda said that
there is a risk that the weakening Yen could affect the trend in inflation and
lead to a policy shift:

• There is a chance
  weak JPY might affect trend inflation and if so, could lead to policy
  shift.
• Don’t think big
  picture changed on US inflation, Fed Outlook.

Fed’s Bostic (hawk –
voter) is another member citing possible rate hikes if the progress on
inflation were to stall or worse, reverse:

• The economy is
  slowing down but slowing down slowly.
• Wage growth is
  happening faster than the inflation rate.
• I’m grateful of the
  progress we’ve made on inflation and grateful the economy continues to
  grow.
• If inflation stalls
  out, we won’t have any option but to respond.
• I’d have to be open
  to increasing rates if inflation stalls out or goes in the other
  direction.
• Getting inflation
  under control is very important.

The Japanese March CPI
came in line with expectations with all measures easing further:

• CPI Y/Y 2.7 vs. 2.7%
  expected and 2.8% prior.
• Core CPI Y/Y 2.6%
  vs. 2.6% expected and 2.8% prior.
• Core-Core CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs. 3.2% prior.

The UK March Retail Sales
missed expectations:

• Retail sales M/M 0.0%
  vs. 0.3% expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%).
• Retail sales Y/Y
  0.8% vs. 1.0% expected and -0.3% prior (revised from -0.4%).
• Retail sales (ex
  autos, fuel) M/M -0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior (revised from
  0.2%).
• Retail sales (ex
  autos, fuel) Y/Y 0.4% vs. 0.9% expected and -0.4% prior (revised from
  -0.5%).

The
highlights for next week will be:

• Monday: PBoC LPR, Canada
  PPI.
• Tuesday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US
  Flash PMIs.
• Wednesday: Australia CPI,
  Canada Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders.
• Thursday: US Q1 GDP Advance,
  US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Tokyo CPI,
  Australia PPI, BoJ Policy Decision, US PCE.

That’s all folks. Have a
nice weekend!