- The US Dollar trades in the green across the board on Thursday’s European session.
- Traders brace for further US data and ECB monetary policy decision as well.
- The US Dollar Index consolidates above 105.00 and could set sail for 106.00.
The US Dollar (USD) adds to gains on Thursday after having a field day on Wednesday, trading over 1% in the green, with a move not seen since early January. Finally, the standstill and sideways price action that accounts for 2024 thus far is changing, and volatility could finally pick up. Markets could see outflows from carry trades into the Greenback as the US Dollar is expected to remain steady due to the anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep higher interest rates for longer, while all other major central banks will be cutting them sooner.
On the economic data front, there are plenty of data points to digest besides the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting later on Thursday. On the docket, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims could add to the current US Dollar strength should they decline or steady. Adding on, the Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers could add more oil to the bonfire as another strong number could signal that inflation pressures persist.
Daily digest market movers: ECB to confirm June cuts
- On the geopolitical front, China has sanctioned two US companies for allegedly selling arms to Taiwan, according to Bloomberg.
- The European Central Bank is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday:
- At 12:15 GMT, the ECB’s Policy Rate decision will be released, accompanied by a written statement.
- At 12:45 GMT, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak and have a Q&A session with reporters.
- Around 12:30 GMT, a bulk load of US data will be released:
- Jobless Claims:
- Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decline to 215,000 from 221,000 in the week ending on April 5.
- Continuing Jobless Claims data are for the week ending on March 29. There were 1.791 million claims the week before.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March will be released at the same time:
- Monthly headline PPI is set to decline to 0.3% from 0.6%.
- Yearly headline PPI is expected to grow at a faster pace of 2.2% from 1.6%.
- Monthly core PPI is set to increase by 0.2%, slowing from 0.3%.
- Yearly core PPI is anticipated to increase by 2.3%, more than the 2.0% seen a month earlier.
- Jobless Claims:
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will deliver some remarks around 12:45 GMT.
- Another Fed speaker, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, will speak around 17:10 GMT.
- US equity futures are rather flat ahead of the PPI numbers later on Thursday. Traders are digesting if risk on is the way to go as it becomes increasingly likely that US interest rates will probably remain elevated for longer.
- After the hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday, expectations for a hold in the Fed’s interest rate at the June meeting increased sharply to over 80%, from roughly 40% before the release of the CPI figures.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.56%, which is lower ahead of US inflation.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Rate differential to play
The US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps above 105.00 for the first time this year and sets the bar at a fresh five-month high around 105.32. As the Fed could now keep interest rates steady longer than other major central banks, the rate differentials will start to kick in, seeing ample amounts of more US dollar strength ahead.
With Wednesday’s seismic move, fresh levels need to be pencilled in for more upside. The first level is the November 10 high at 106.01, just above the 106.00 figure. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY Index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high..
On the downside, fresh support levels need to be pencilled in as well, with the first important level at the 105.00 big figure, which can see the DXY Index orbiting around it, snapping back below and above it, for a brief amount of time. Further down, 104.60 should also act as a support, ahead of the region with both the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages at 103.97 and 103.84, respectively.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.