OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, and further raised its economic growth forecast for this year saying there was more room for improvement.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
OPEC’s 2024 demand growth forecast is far above that of many other forecasters including the International Energy Agency. OPEC believes oil use will keep rising for the next two decades, while the IEA predicts it will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy.
In the report, OPEC said a “robust dynamic” for economic growth towards the end of 2023 was expected to extend into the first half of 2024 and raised its 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points, following a hike last month.
“While some downside risks persist, a continuation of the expected momentum from the beginning of the year could result in additional upside potential for global economic growth in 2024.” OPEC said in the report.
“The 2024 and 2025 growth trajectories of India, China, as well as the United States, could exceed current expectations.” The OPEC report also said that OPEC oil production rose by 203,000 bpd in February to 26.57 million bpd led by Nigeria and Libya, despite a new round of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ alliance that started in January.