Gold Price Forecast : XAU/USD closes the week near $1,920, above the 200-day SMA

XAU/USD closed the week with a 1% weekly decline above the convergence of the 20 and 200-day SMAs.
US yields are set to close a 2% weekly increase.
Attention shifts to next week’s US CPI and Retail Sales from the US.

At the end of the week, the XAU/USD traded with mild losses, around $1,918. The precious metal will close the week with sharp losses, 5% for Silver and nearly 1% for Gold driven by US yields edging higher on the back of growing tightening expectations for the Federal Reserve.

In that sense, precious metals tend to be seen as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, and the US Treasury yields consolidated their weekly rallies on Friday. The 2-year yields stand at 4.99%, while the 5 and 10-year rates are at 4.40% and 4.26%. All three saw mild gains during the session which limited the Gold’s advances on the day.

For next week, investors eagerly await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures from August in the US to continue placing their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions. As for now, markets expect a 25 basis point (bps) hike for the rest of the year but aren’t sure if it will come in November or December. In that sense, the incoming US data will help investors continue modelling their expectations.

XAU/USD Levels to watch

The technical outlook for the XAU/USD appears to be neutral to bearish for the short term, with indicators turning flat in negative territory. The neutral slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 further reinforces this mixed sentiment, as does the MACD, which displays stagnant red bars. On the other hand, the metal is battling to consolidate above the convergence of the 20 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), so for now, in the larger context, the bulls command.

Support levels: $1,915 (20 and 200-day SMA convergence), $1,900, $1,880.

Resistance levels: $1,930, $1,950 (100-day SMA), $1,970.