- EUR/USD pauses two-day recovery from the lowest levels in a fortnight amid cautious markets.
- ECB policymakers advocate higher rates, rule out rate cuts but German Bunds renew recession fears.
- US data will allow Fed Chair Powell to sound hawkish, suggesting pullback in Euro pair.
- ECB President Lagarde’s speech, second-tier German data also eyed for clear directions.
EUR/USD bulls take a breather around 1.0960 after posting the biggest daily gain in a week during a two-day run-up. That said, the Euro pair cheered the hawkish commentary from the European Central Bank (ECB) officials the previous day while paying little heed to the upbeat US data. However, the cautious mood ahead of the key speeches from the top-tier central bankers including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at the ECB Forum in Sintra prods the major currency pair’s further upside.
On Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said, “We need to bring rates into “sufficiently restrictive” territory to lock in our policy tightening.” The policymaker also added that, “It is unlikely that in the near future the central bank will be able to state with full confidence that the peak rates have been reached.”
On the same line, ECB policymaker Matin Kazaks said on Tuesday that he sees the central bank raising interest rates beyond the July meeting if inflation remains too high. ECB’s Kazaks also defied the market bets on rate cuts in early 2024.
Earlier in the week, Germany’s Bundesbank ruled out recession woes in its monthly report by saying that the German economy appears to have bottomed out and is forecast to post a small growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter (Q2).
On the other hand, a slew of the US data allowed the US Dollar to pare intraday losses during late Tuesday but failed to reverse the daily loss of the greenback amid optimism. That said, US Durable Goods Orders marked a surprise growth of 1.7% for May versus -1.0% market forecasts and 1.2% prior (revised). Further, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence Index rose to 109.7 for June from 102.5 in May (revised from 102.3). On the same line, US Housing Price Index rose to 0.7% in April from 0.5% in previous readings (revised), versus the 0.3% expected. Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index came in as -1.7% YoY for April, down from -1.1% prior but better than -2.6% market forecasts. Additionally, New Home Sales rose 12.2% MoM in May from 3.5% prior and 0.5% anticipated whereas the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved to -7.0 in June compared to -15.0 prior and -10.0 expected.
Furthermore, headlines suggesting Asian lobbyists are advocating for easier rules for Chinese equities’ overseas listing and comments from Premier Li Qiang joined the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) lower-than-expected fixing of the USD/CNY price to favor the optimism. Further, the US Dollar selling by major Chinese state banks, per Reuters, also allowed the EUR/USD pair to remain firmer.
While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed with notable gains for the first time in three days while the US Treasury bond yields recovered.
Looking ahead, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey data for July may entertain Euro traders ahead of the speeches from Fed Chair Powell and ECB’s Lagarde. Should the policymakers remain hawkish, the EUR/USD has more odds to ease amid recent fears of recession backed by downbeat German Bund market signals.
Technical analysis
A successful rebound from a two-month-old previous resistance line and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.0865 and 1.0850, directs EUR/USD bulls toward the monthly high of around 1.1015. However, the 1.1000 round figure caps the Euro pair’s immediate upside.