EURUSD buyers are more in control.
So what levels are in play through the FOMC rate decision?
The EURUSD extended up to – and then through – the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.08334 (see green line on the chart above). The price has moved to a high of 1.08637. That was just a PIP or so away from the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high to the May 31 low. That midpoint level comes in at 1.08650. The current price is trading at 1.0855 as the clock ticks toward the FOMC rate decision at the top of the hour.
Technically, the buyers are in control going into the right decision. In addition to moving above the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart, the price has also extended above its 100-day moving average 1.0805, and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high at 1.08108. So buyers are certainly dominant in trading today.
A move below the 200 bar moving average of the 4-hour chart 1.08334 would hurt that bullish bias. If you are long and like the dollar-selling idea, it would take a move below that level – and staying below that level – to increase a bearish bias. After that, getting below the 100-day moving average at 1.08054 would be another hurdle that would take even more control away from the buyers.
On the topside, getting and staying above the 50% retracement at 1.0865 would be step one. Above that, and traders would look toward a swing area between 1.08955 and 1.0908 (above and below 1.0900). Get above that area and the 61.8% retracement of the same move down from the April high comes in at 1.09193. Move above that and the door opens for further upside momentum.