Dollar moves back higher after flash PMI jump

Technical Analysis

Just when you think the data might be to tipping lower, the S&P/Global flash PMI indices , come in higher than expectations.

The 2 year yield moved from down about 5 or so basis points to up 1.8 basis points currently at 4.183%. The 10 year yield is now up 2.1 basis points at 3.566%. Stocks have moved lower with the NASDAQ index down -0.5% and the S&P index down by -0.21%. The Dow industrial averages down -0.09%..

For the US dollar:

  • EURUSD moved to a new high just before the data at 1.0993 as it approached key swing area between 1.09996 and 1.1006. The price has now fallen below the 200 hour moving average 1.0970 and the 100 hour moving average 1.0957. Once again it tilts the short-term bias back to the downside with swing area support between 1.0925 and 1.09438.
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY moved to a new session low and new low for the week down to 133.54 prior to the release, but has pushed to a new session high and is up testing the 100 hour moving average 134.312. Move above that moving average with momentum would increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective.
  • GBPUSD was looking to recover back above its 100 hour moving average of 1.24196, but has been pushed to a new session low to 1.23729. There is a swing area between 1.2386 and 1.2397. Watch that level for close resistance now. Stay below keeps the pressure on the pair in the short term.

GBPUSD reverses lower

With Fed officials still talking up inflation, stronger data is not the soft landing they are looking for to slow the inflation levels.

Today is the last day, the Fed officials can weigh-in as the quiet period begins ahead of the May 3 rate decision. A 25 basis point hike is expected.

Next week, the PCE data will be released on Friday. GDP for 1Q will be released on Thursday. There are a slew of earnings:

Monday, April 24

  • Coca-Cola
  • Whirlpool

Tuesday, April 25

  • Microsoft
  • Alphabet
  • Visa
  • Pepsi
  • McDonald’s
  • Verizon
  • GE
  • 3M
  • Dow
  • to bully

Wednesday, April 26

  • Meta Platforms
  • Boeing
  • Boston Scientific
  • General Dynamics
  • ServiceNow

Thursday, April 27

  • Amazon
  • MasterCard
  • Eli Lilly
  • Merck
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb
  • Intel
  • Honeywell
  • Snap
  • Caterpillar
  • Northrop Grumman

Friday, April 28

  • Exxon Mobil
  • Chevron
  • Colgate-Palmolive

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