Range trading continues in overall quiet markets today. The batch of economic data from the US and Canada trigger little reactions. Yen is still set to end as the strongest one for the week, followed by Canadian and then Swiss Franc. Kiwi is the worst, followed by Sterling and than Dollar.
In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.05%. DAX is up 0.56%. CAC is up 0.14%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.025 at 2.386. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.03%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.44%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.28%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.36%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0155 to 0.399.
Happy holidays to our readers. We’ll be back on December 27.
US PCE prices slowed to 5.5% yoy, core CPI down to 4.7% yoy
US personal income rose 0.4% mom or USD 80.1B in November, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Spending rose 0.1% mom or USD 19.8B, below expectation of 0.2% mom.
For the month, PCE price index rose 0.1% mom while core PCE price (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom. Prices for goods decreased -0.4% mom while prices for services increased 0.4% mom. Food prices rose 0.3% mom and energy prices dropped -1.5% mom.
From the same month a year ago, PCE price index slowed from 6.1% yoy to 5.5% yoy, above expectation of 5.3% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed form 5.0% yoy to 4.7% yoy, matched expectations. Prices for goods rose 6.1% yoy and prices for services increased 5.2% yoy. Food prices increased 11.2% yoy and energy prices increased 13.6% yoy.
US durable goods orders down -2.1% mom in Nov, ex-transport orders up 0.2% mom
US durable goods orders decreased -2.1% mom to USD 270.6B in November, worse than expectation of -0.7% mom. Ex-transport orders increased 0.2% mom to USD 179.3B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-defense orders declined -2.6% mom to USD 252.8B. Transportation equipment decreased -6.3% mom to USD 91.3B.
Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in Oct, essentially unchanged in Nov
Canada GDP rose 0.1% mom in October, matched expectations. Services-producing industries expanded 0.3% while goods-producing industries contracted -0.7%. 11 of 20 industrial sectors grew.
Advance information indicates that real GDP was essentially unchanged in November. Increases in accommodation and food services and wholesale trade were offset by declines in construction as well as mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction.
Japan CPI core rose to 3.7% yoy, highest in 40 yrs
Japan CPI core (all item ex fresh food) accelerate further from 3.6% yoy to 3.7% yoy in November, matched expectations. That’s also the highest level in more than 40 years since 1981.
CPI core-core (all time ex fresh food and energy), also rose from 2.5% yoy to 2.8% yoy, above expectation of 2.7% yoy. Headline all item CPI ticked up from 3.7% yoy to 3.8% yoy, above expectation of 3.7% yoy.
Economic Indicators Update
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Nov | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.60% | |
| 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | ||||
| 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 13:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Nov | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.70% | |
| 13:30 | USD | Personal Spending Nov | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Nov | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Nov | 5.50% | 5.30% | 6.00% | 6.10% |
| 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Nov | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Nov | 4.70% | 4.70% | 5.00% | |
| 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Nov | -2.10% | -0.70% | 1.10% | |
| 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Nov | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.50% | |
| 15:00 | USD | New Home Sales Nov | 600K | 632K | ||
| 15:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Dec F | 59.1 | 59.1 |