This will be a continuation of the post I made last week here, highlighting the similar situation currently. As things stand, the dollar is continuing to show some fight as the selling momentum stalls. As mentioned then, this is where buyers and sellers will have to do battle in determining whether the next leg for the dollar will be one that is higher or lower (again) from here.
Let’s get right into the charts to take stock of the situation.
First up, EUR/USD continues to offer more of a pushback after meeting resistance in the form of its 200-day moving average (blue line). Price is down another 0.45% to 1.0278 currently and the near-term bias is more neutral – trading in between its 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0363 and 1.0272 respectively.
The latter now becomes a particularly important support point as a break below that will see sellers seize near-term control and that could allow for a stronger recovery in the dollar this week.
The near-term picture for USD/JPY is little changed but buyers are showing some appetite amid the recent consolidation in and around the 140.00 mark. Price action is holding above its 100-hour moving average (red line), so the near-term bias remains more neutral.
However, buyers will still have to push past the 200-hour moving average (blue line), seen at 141.18 currently, to really recapture any upside momentum. But before that, there is the 100-day moving average at 141.00 to contest with as well. I would argue that is more of a critical point for the pair now so buyers still have some work to do in order to reaffirm any rebound in the pair.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD is continuing to push higher and is up another 0.25% today to 1.3417. The loonie’s softness as of late is not helped by the selloff in oil, in which WTI crude closed below its 100-week moving average for the first time since December 2020 on Friday.
But from a technical standpoint, the bounce above its 100-day moving average (red line) for USD/CAD has also helped the dollar’s campaign with the near-term bias also now more bullish. The more sluggish risk mood over the past few sessions have also contributed to things as well.
Then, we have AUD/USD which saw its upside move stall upon testing the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.6767 last week.
The loss in the upside momentum for buyers is made worse upon the push back below the 100-day moving average (red line) and now sellers are starting to get more appetite to seize near-term control. Price is down another 0.44% to 0.6640 on the day, tipping just below its 200-hour moving average of 0.6648 currently.
The low last week was seen at 0.6633-35 and a hold below that will start to see the downside momentum pick up again, especially if risk continues to show signs of struggling this week.