By Themla Gower
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has now ended. Here are the top ten public policy takeaways from this rare event.
1) COVID containment: until a stronger, domestically-produced vaccine is produced, nothing fundamentally changes
2) Economic growth targets: becoming #1 in the world is now considered not necessary nor advisable
3) Domestic growth engines: until domestic consumption rates substantially increase, state-owned companies plus the service and manufacturing sectors will have to carry the economy forward
4) USD/CNH rate: for the first time in 14 years, the 7.2 ceiling has been allowed to break – a move that will help the country’s exports maintain market share
5) Party & military ideological purity: all corrupted individuals (however defined) have to go
6) Military spending: more is better
7) Taiwan: “Ceterum autem censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.” … “Furthermore, I consider that Carthage must be destroyed” The phrase originates from debates held in the Roman Senate prior to the Third Punic War
8) R&D: No policies to effectively counter US microchip restrictions (that are going to gut China’s AI efforts) were announced
9) Urban youth unemployment rates: this source of potential social unrest has yet to be realistically addressed
10) Plunging birth rates: this private sign of public anxiety about the future threatens to undermine everything
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The author is a former investment banker and professor specializing in Chinese affairs.