USD/JPY retraced in July and looked to be retracing further earlier this month but a strong push higher at the end of the month pushed it back to the top of the range. That’s a bullish sign going forward and highlights how the Fed has successfully built a case for higher rates for longer.
Technically, the July high of 139.39 is still holding but spot is at 138.72 at the moment so it’s certainly within striking distance. No doubt there are buy stops building above it and the 140.00 level as well.
Zooming way out on the monthly chart, the obvious target is 1998 high of 147.63 and that would represent an opportunity for a top.
All the talk this year has been about the weak EUR (and GBP) and strong dollar but the real story of 2022 FX is the yen and how it’s losing its safe haven status. Last week was a perfect example of that as it fell even with the rout in equity markets.
I’ve been a bull in this pair but one thing that worries me is a pivot from the Bank of Japan. So far they’ve stared down pressure to end yield curve control but every tick lower in the yen puts upward pressure on inflation. Official stats have been remakably stable so far but there’s a chance of an explosion higher in inflation and a pivot from the BOJ. That would risk a total turnaround in this pair and the yen in general. Ultimately, that could manifest as a spike to the 1998 high and then a drop right back into the 130s.