Yesterday, there was a risk-on flows into the AUDUSD as the dollar fell, stocks rallied and yields moved lower.
Today, the AUDUSD is not seeing upside risk-on flows despite another up day for stocks. In fact the AUDUSD is lower on the day.
Admittedly, the yields are higher. Whereas the 10 year yield was below 3% at the close yesterday, the current yield is up at 3.034%. That may be the deciding factor for the pair (and the USD today).
Technically, the price rise yesterday saw the pair move up to the 38.2% retracement at 0.69106. Today in the Asian and early European session, the price did try to extend above that retracement level . However, in the NY session, buying efforts faded and the price started to chop more to the downside.
The pair is lower on the day with the pair currently at 0.6886 (the pair closed at 0.6898). However, the low for the day stalled near the high from July 8. That was also near the high of a swing area between 0.6860 and 0.6874.
Going forward in the new trading day, move below the swing area below 0.6860 and traders will be looking toward the rising 100 hour MA at 0.68312. The price moved above the 100 hour MA on Friday of last week, and stayed above with the pair rallying 3 days in a row into today. That string will likely be broken today barring a late day rally.