In the early post today, I spoke to key support being tested in the 1.0633 to 1.0642 area.
The EURUSD did in fact bounce off the early US session low near the 100 hour MA, the 50% retracement and swing area which all clustered from 1.06336 to 1.0642. The low reached 1.0641.
The subsequent move to the upside was able to bounce above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line) and the 38.2% of the move down from the high yesterday at 1.06821. The high price reached 1.06865, before rotating back to the downside.
The price has now moved back below the aforementioned 100 bar MA at 1.06651 level (see blue line on the chart below).
Will the pair return for a 2nd test of the key support area on the hourly chart?
It’s a toss up, but sellers are have the shorter term control.
When a key support level holds like it did today, the next run back down often finds early buyers ahead of the level. If that is the case, getting back above the shorter term 100 bar MA on the 5 minute with momentum will give the buyers some comfort.
Watch for a move back above the 100 bar MA in the short term and hope the sellers turn back to buyers and push to new NY session highs (and above the falling 200 bar MA at 1.06848 next).
Conversely, if the price stays below that 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.0665, the seller are still in control in the short term. A move to the 1.0633-1.0642 will be tested again and traders will once again see if the buyers there can do their job and hold support. Move below, and I would not mess around with the break.
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