The AUDUSD is lower for the 3rd consecutive day. The pair today is suffering after China retail sales data came in weaker than expected. There is also a “risk off” sentiment as fears from Ukraine, along with higher inflation permeate the markets. Oil prices are higher. Gold is higher on safety flows. US stocks are lower.
Looking at the daily chart, not only is the AUDUSD down for the third consecutive day, but it is also down seven the last nine trading days after peaking at 0.76607 on April 5 (the RBA kept rates unchanged on that day but did make subtle language changes – see post here). The gains on April 5 took the price of the AUDUSD to the highest level since June 16, but momentum could not be sustained.
On April 6 (the day after the RBA rate decision), the AUDUSD price moved back below a swing area near 0.7540 and 0.75602.
The price has been moving lower since then with a modest pause at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January 2022 low at 0.73957 last week.
Today, the AUDUSD has moved below, and further away from the 38.2% retracement as momentum to the downside has increased. The low price reached 0.7543.
The next major target on the daily chart comes in at the 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 0.73138. The 200 day moving average at 0.72938 would be another target on further downside momentum.
Drilling to the hourly chart, a swing area between 0.7367 and 0.73799 was broken and then retested today (see red numbered circles and yellow area) stay below that area will be close risk for intraday sellers going forward. Move above is needed to give the buyers some added confidence.
On the downside, the price has also moved below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 15 low. That comes in at 0.73536. Finding sellers near that level going forward would be the best case scenario for shorts looking for additional downside momentum.
