The USDCAD has moved down to test the low of the swing area between 1.2649 and 1.2656. The low price just reach 1.26475 but has since bounced back up to 1.2663. The 100 day moving average of 1.26377 is also in play as is the failed swing low from February 10 at 1.26344.
So although the price went to the ledge of the “Red Box” and stuck a foot over that ledge, traders did not lose their balance and go over the ledge with a momentum break below 1.2649 followed by the 100 day moving average of 1.26377 and the February 10 low.
As a result, the status quo remains, and the dip buyers have so far lived with the hope for a run back to the upside. Watch the swing low from last Wednesday at 1.26806 for further confirmation that the buyers are “winning” at least in the short term.