The press conference with Lagarde is underway and the market reaction is to the upside. The pair is currently trading above the high from yesterday at 1.13295. The high price just reached 1.1360. That high tested the high price going back to January 21. The January 20 high at 1.13684 would be the next target on further upside momentum followed by a swing area between 1.1382 and 1.1385. Move above those levels and it opens the door toward 1.1400.
Above that, and the falling 100 day MA at 1.14293 will be the next key target. The high price in 2022 reached 1.1482. At that time the 100 day MA was up at 1.1505 area. Since than, the MA has continued it’s downward trek. Getting above would be the first breach since June 2021.
Taking a look back at the price action today, the pair initially moved to the downside finding support near swing levels between 1.1258 and 1.1279. The low price reached 1.1266 before bouncing higher in the early North American session. Holding against that level was positive.
Lagarde says that inflation surprises cause unanimous concern on the Council. Perhaps are getting a little itchy. She also does not repeat that interest rate increases in 2022 are unlikely one asked. There is a crack in the armour of the ECB and Lagarde.