It wasn’t long ago that the headlines were extolling the valuation of Apple extending above $3T. Since the price reached that milestone back on January 4th, the price has been moving down and down since. Of course the overall market is lower as well. The price of Apple is currently down about 13.4% from that peak (it was down as much 15.4% at the lows). Since January 4 the Nasdaq index is down -14.47%.
Looking at the daily chart, the stock is toying with its 100 day MA at 157.98. Prior to this month, the price did have dips below that MA back in early October 2021, but the MA at that time was at around $141. The price moved up 57.43% from the post pandemic low in March 2020. It is now up 36.56% from that low.
So what is expected today?
- EPS for Q1 of FY 2022 are expected at $1.88. That compares to $1.68 in the 1Q of 2021
- Revenues are expected at $118.7B which is up from $111.4B in 2021
- iPhone revenues are expected at $68.4B vs $65.6B in 2021.
- Ipad are exp at 8.2B
- EPS guidance for Q2 $1.32
- EPS FY 2022 est $5.75
- Revenue Guidance Q2 $90.56B
- FY 2022 $382.8B
Looking at the daily chart below, as mentioned, the current price is trading just above its 100 day at 157.98. The 38.2% of the move up from the March 2020 low comes in at $157.39. The low price from last week reached $154.68.
Needless to say from a technical perspective the price is sitting on the ledge at the 100 day MA and wondering if it jumps off and goes lower (the 50% is at $149.51 and would be a downside target on more selling), or rebounds and looks back toward the 100 day MA at $169.12. The 200 day MA is at $147.51 for the pair.
What seems unlikely, is that even if we do get a bounce, that the bounce in 2022 is different than the bounce in 2021. With the Fed tightening and uncertainty on how many that means, I would expect willing sellers against the 100 day MA.
