US Q4 advance GDP +6.9% vs +5.5% expected

News
  • Q3 was 2.3% annualized
  • Personal consumption +3.3% vs +2.0% in Q3
  • GDP deflator +7.0% vs +5.9% prior
  • Core PCE +4.9% vs +4.6% prior
  • GDP final sales +1.9% vs +0.1% in Q3
  • Nominal GDP up 14.3% annualized in Q4
  • Real GDP up 5.7% in 2021 and nominal GDP rose 10.0%

Details:

  • Inventories added 4.9 pp to GDP
  • Exports added 2.43 pp to GDP
  • Imports cut 2.43 pp from GDP
  • Home investment cut 0.03 pp from GDP
  • Personal consumption added 2.25 pp GDP
  • Gross private domestic investment added 5.15 pp
  • Government spending cut 0.51 pp from GDP

This is a strong reading and the 2021 annual growth was the strongest since 1984. The nominal readings are simply astonishing. A good chunk of this quarter is inventories but that’s going to be a tailwind all year long as companies move from just-in-time delivery to just-in-case inventories.

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