100 hour MA at 104.644
The USDJPY string of down days was snapped at 5 yesterday when the pair corrected higher. That move took the price toward its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below). Since then, the pair has traded above that MA line on about 5 separate hourly bars with each finding sellers a few pips above the MA line. In other words, there have been sellers leaning against the moving average line as risk can be defined and limited.
The 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 104.644. The current price is trading around 104.57.
Stay below keeps the sellers more in control. The lower trendline on the hourly chart currently comes in at 104.37. A move below would have traders looking toward 104.267 and the low(s) from yesterday’s trade near the 104 level
A move above should solicit more buying. Note however that with the moving average moving lower and the various tests seen over the last 24 so hours, those swing highs could provide other resistance levels. Nevertheless, the main area to get to on a break of the 100 hour moving average (and stay above) would be the 38.2% retracement at 104.874. Yesterday on the initial spike higher (stop driven), the price move to a high of 104.889 before quickly reversing lower.