How low can the Bitcoin price go?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has taken a major hit this week, with analysts speculating on its next move after a tumultuous period. As of Feb. 27, the cryptocurrency is down 3% over the last 24 hours and 10% over the last seven days. 

Traders and analysts believe in the potential for Bitcoin to drop further, specifically to fill a CME gap below $80,000. Let’s take a closer look at the mechanics behind this scenario, why it matters, and how low Bitcoin’s price could go.

Bitcoin CME gap to $78,000 likely to be filled

The most recent swoop to the downside saw BTC price fall to $82,000 on Feb. 27, leading market participants to speculate on whether a CME Bitcoin futures gap below $80,000 could be filled.

What to know:

• The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offers Bitcoin futures, a regulated derivative product that institutional investors heavily rely on. 

• Unlike the spot market, which trades 24/7, CME futures have specific trading hours, closing on weekends and holidays. 

• This discontinuity often creates “gaps” on the CME Bitcoin futures chart.

• Historically, these gaps tend to act as magnets—it’s rooted in market psychology and institutional behavior, with Bitcoin’s price often returning to “fill” them over time.

• One such gap exists below $80,000, as seen in the chart below.

• After Bitcoin briefly surged past $90,000 in November 2024, a subsequent sell-off left an unfilled gap between approximately $77,930 and $80,670 on the CME chart.

• Technical analysts argue that Bitcoin may revisit this zone to close the gap before resuming any sustained upward trend.

• Historically, gaps at $9,700 in 2020 and $35,000 in 2021 were filled months later, often during periods of consolidation or correction.

• The current gap aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA, currently at $79,500, reinforcing it as a key support area. 

Related: Is BTC price about to fill a $78K Bitcoin futures gap?

Bitcoin price may drop to $73,000 or lower

Market participants expect that once Bitcoin price drops to fill the CME gap, it could embark on a sustained uptrend. Failure to do this could see the price revisit the March 2024 all-time highs above $73,000, according to popular Bitcoin analyst AplhaBTC.

In an X post on 25, AlphaBTC said:

• “Bitcoin is holding on for dear life” after losing support at $85,000.

• The latest sell-off has seen the asset break below key levels of support and “finally fill in some of the inefficiency left from the Trump pump.”

• If the BTC doesn’t hold above the CME gap of around $77,000, it will drop lower toward March 2024 highs.

“The November CME gap is sitting at around 77K. Will #BTC be able to HODL here? or are we going back to test the highs from early Mar 2024?”

Founder of MN Capital Michael van de Poppe argued that after taking the liquidity beneath the $85,500 level, the chances of BTC price dropping lower are “substantially high” as altcoins begin to break out “massively against Bitcoin.”

For van de Poppe, the key levels to watch on the downside are:

• The $72,000 support zone was created during the November 2024 rally after Donald Trump’s victory.

• The $65,000 level, and the $58,000 to $60,000 area, which is a demand zone to hold.

• Lower than that, August 2024 support level above $52,000 could be Bitcoin’s last line of defense.

Meanwhile, significant liquidity is building up in the lower-$70,000 range, as per data from CoinGlass.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.