The NZD/USD fell sharply on Monday, reaching its lowest level since October 2022, following tariff news. However, the pair rebounded after tariffs on Mexico and Canada were delayed by 30 days. The price spiked higher, retraced into a key swing area between 0.5581 and 0.5592, then bounced to extend even higher.
On Wednesday, the pair briefly broke above another swing area between 0.5684 and 0.5695, but the breakout was short-lived. This zone has since acted as a stronger ceiling, reinforcing its importance heading into the new trading week.
In recent hours, the price has rotated lower amid renewed talk of potential reciprocal tariffs under Trump, which typically supports a stronger USD. The decline has brought the pair to a cluster of critical technical levels, including the 100-hour moving average at 0.5653, the 200-hour moving average at 0.5644, and the 61.8% retracement of the January move at 0.5643. This zone now serves as a pivotal barometer for buyers and sellers.
- If price stays above this cluster, a move back toward the 0.5684–0.5695 swing area is likely, with a breakout potentially targeting January’s high at 0.5723.
- If price falls below, it could open the door for a drop toward the 50% retracement at 0.5619 and beyond. Move below that level and the door opens for further declines toward 0.5881 in 0.55918
This cluster of levels will be crucial in determining the next directional move for the NZD/USD.