The USDCAD buyers are making a play in the early NA trading and ahead of the BOC rate decision. That upside momentum has taken the price above the “red box” that I have outlined as a key range to break and stay broken to either increase the bullish or the bearish momentum.
The break today is to the upside.
The question technically is can that break stick to and through the BOC rate decision (and later the US Fed decision)? The BOC is expected to cut by 25 basis points. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. That should be bullish but as we know, the tides can change, the stories can change.
So watch the 1.4448 level on the downside for clues (the low of the topside swing area) for short term clues. If the price can stay above through the rate decision more upside probing can be expected. Absent that, and we are back in the grips of the “red box” once again.