Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey
Over the past six months or so, the survey has generally reflected ongoing concerns about price pressures. While the month-to-month figures have shown some variability, the overall trend suggests that consumers remain wary of sustained inflation levels, particularly in light of rising costs for essential goods and services.
In several of the recent releases, expected inflation rates hovered above historical averages, driven by continued supply chain disruptions, higher energy prices, and global economic uncertainties. This aligns with a broader sentiment of caution among Australian households, who appear to anticipate persistent cost-of-living pressures in the near term.
At the same time, the data also highlighted moments of slight improvement, with a few monthly readings showing marginal dips in expectations. These instances often coincided with periods of relative stability in fuel prices. However, such temporary declines did not significantly alter the underlying narrative: consumers generally expected inflation to remain elevated, even as the pace of price increases fluctuated.
From the RBA website, the current official inflation rate:
The next official inflation data is due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on January 29. We’ll get both the Q4 and December (monthly) reading.