Fundamental
Overview
Last week, despite the
higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar
couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.
USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDCHF Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF couldn’t extend above the 0.89 handle. From a risk management perspective,
the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
USDCHF 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on
this timeframe. The price recently broke below it which could be a signal of a
bigger pullback to follow.
The sellers are likely to
pile in here to target a drop into the 0.88 handle. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to position
for a rally into new highs.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
USDCHF 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback.
The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new lows, while the
buyers will look for a break higher to position for new highs. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.