Earlier I wrote a post highlighting why Presidential betting odds have tightened.
Well, in the last hour they’ve tightened further and it’s from a somewhat shocking place — Iowa.
It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. It’s largely been abandoned by the Harris campaign.
There was one poll in both 2016 and 2020 that foreshadowed Trump winning by the wide margin he did — Selzer. It’s seen as the gold standard for the state and here is why:
Just now, Selzer released the 2024 Presidential poll and something like Harris trailing by 3-4 points would have been thrilling for Harris because it would show some momentum and better numbers than 2016 or 2020.
The result? Harris 47% and Trump 44%.
That’s a shocker and would open a path for Harris to win the Presidency even without Pennsylvania.