The price of USDCAD fell below its 100-hour moving average currently at 1.39028 (see earlier post). Last week, the price fell below that moving average line, but reversed back higher. The week before it fell below the 100-hour moving average but also failed on the break. When the market trends you can get those counter-trend moves, but if momentum does not continue in the direction of the breaks, it can lead to snapback moves.
Today, after the break below the 100 hour MA, the price fell but when it tested a swing level going back to early August 2024 at 1.3888 (see 4-hour chart below), buyers returned. The price moved back above the 100-hour and sellers gave up.
What we know is the price has been trending. We know the selling has faded on corrections. That makes shorts nervous. So I/we can’t be surprised.
What now?
Looking at the 4-hour chart below, the new high price has now taken out the high from yesterday, BUT has so far stalled just below the high for 2024 from August at 1.39458. The price has reached 1.39446.
A move above that level would next target the high from 2022. That level comes in at 1.3977. Move above, and the price of the USDCAD is trading at the highest levels since May 2020. The door opens for more buying…
What would hurt the bullish bias.
- Finding sellers here at 2024 highs.
- Getting below the rising 100 hour MA at 1.39027
- Getting below the 1.38888
- Gettting below the 200 hour MA at 1.3868
As one is broken, the next becomes the target, but given the trend, if the price cannot get below the 200 hour MA eventually, the s