USDCAD Technical Analysis
The USDCAD has experienced a volatile month, with one day remaining. Key milestones include:
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Monthly low: 1.3472 (October 2)
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Monthly high: 1.3938 (today)
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Trading range: 466 pips, second-largest since December 2022
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Uptrend dominant throughout the month
Technically:
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Price rarely dipped below 100-hour moving average
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Last breach: Thursday last week, with support at 1.3813 holding and bouncing higher
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Today’s high: within seven pips of August’s 2024 high (1.39458)
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Break above 1.39458 targets November 2022’s high (1.3977)
Buyers maintain control, but sellers seek to regain ground. To achieve this:
This analysis highlights the pivotal role of the 100-hour moving average in determining short-term market direction.
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The USDCAD has had a trend month with one day to go. The low for the month was reached on October 2 at 1.3472. The high for the month was reached today at 1.3938. That’s 466 pips which is the second largest trading range going back to December 2022. Moreover, the range has been trending to the upside for the entire month.
Technically, the price has only had a a few instances this month when the price moved below its 100 hour moving average. They last time was on Thursday last week but traders held support near 1.3813 (at a key short-term swing level).
The high price today got within seven pips of the 2024 high price reached in August at 1.39458. Getting above that level would take the price to the highest level going back to November 2022 when the pair that 1.3977. Both the 2024 and 2022 high prices are within reach.
Needless to say the buyers are in control. When that happens, the sellers have to take back control. What would give the sellers more control even in the short term?
In the above video I talk to that dynamic. More specifically, getting and staying below the 100 hour moving average would be step one. That moving average comes in at 1.38877.
Putting it another way, if the sellers cannot get and stay below the 100 hour moving average, they are not winning. The buyers are still winning and in firm control.