It has been the case for a while now, especially with the manufacturing sector in such a dire state. Here’s the estimates for the Q3 GDP releases in key euro area countries this week:
- Germany -0.3% q/q (previously -0.1%)
- France +0.3% q/q (previously +0.3%)
- Spain +0.6% q/q (previously +0.8%)
- Italy +0.7% q/q (previously +0.9%; revised to +0.6%)
The periphery nations continue to outperform but recent data has showed that they are also starting to see some slowdown. But the standout is of course the fact that a contraction reading will confirm a recession in Germany (again). This will mark the fourth time in the last five quarters that the economy has shrunk.
The latest PMI data for Germany here might be an improvement to September but it still doesn’t take away from the poor performance overall. And that plight there is what is pressuring the ECB to have to move quicker, so as to manage the fall that the economy is facing. Liability much?