USD/JPY rose to the best levels of the day after the US ADP employment report beat estimates. Jobs rose by 143K in the month of September compared to 120K expected.
USD/JPY broke 145 on the report and is now up 162 pip to 145.18.
The broader moves are coming on both sides of the trade. The market has now shifted to a 65% chance of a 25 bps Fed cut in November, down from 50/50 a week ago. In Japan, the incoming Prime Minister hasn’t been as hawkish as feared and an election is coming at the end of the month.
USDJPY daily
In the bigger picture, the broader market is growing less concerned about a recession and is upbeat about global growth after US and Chinese easing.
In geopolitics, the pair was pressured yesterday after Iran launched missiles at Israel but that angst has faded somewhat today.
Outside of the yen, the dollar strengthened modestly after the data, in part because ADP hasn’t been a great forecaster for non-farm payrolls, which are due on Friday. EUR/USD fell a dozen pips after the data and is sodnw 10 on the day to 1.1057. Commodity currencies and the pound largely shrugged off the report.
Next, the focus will shift to Fed speakers including Hammack (9 am ET), Musalem (10:05 am ET) Bowman (11 am ET) and Barkin (1215 pm ET).