The initial reaction to the gold import duty cut in the July Budget was short-lived as prices of the yellow metal surged Rs 76,000/10 gms to new record highs in just 2 months. Amid positive global cues and the festive season around the corner, analysts now see gold prices surging further to as high as Rs 80,000 per 10 gms.
Domestically, gold prices in India saw a dip on July 23, 2024, following the government’s decision to cut import duty to 6% (from an earlier 10%) on bullion during the Budget announcement. Two days later, MCX gold made a short-term low of Rs. 67,462 per 10 grams after a sharp fall of Rs 5,400.
However, the price has since recovered, climbing 12.5% or Rs 8,500.
“This recovery has been fueled by a combination of domestic buying interest following the price decline and the broader global trends (like US Fed rate cut, tensions in the Middle East and People’s Bank of China’s stimulus),” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst – Currencies & Commodities Reliance Securities.
Since the US Fed announced a rate cut of 50 bps and also hinted at the prospects of further rate cuts, the yellow metal has increased by nearly Rs 3,000 or 4%.
Jigar Trivedi also stated that MCX gold could reach Rs. 80,000 per 10 grams by the end of 2024 and while the sharp rally raises the possibility of a short-term technical pullback, the overall outlook remains bullish, making it a prudent strategy to consider buying on dips.Gold demand in India also usually strengthens towards the end of the year, which coincides with the traditional wedding season and major festivals including Diwali and Dusherra. Bullion buying is considered auspicious especially on occasions like Navratri, Dhanteras and Onam festival in southern India. Also, the major wedding season begins from October onwards in India and continues till the start of next year.“Considering the high price, we may not see a festival time buying from India however, a political risk in the US and ongoing geo-political risk in the Middle East is likely to push the safe haven appeal for the yellow metal in the coming three months,” adds Trivedi.
Gold prices continued to hit successive all-time highs in International markets since April this year, while Indian prices were impacted in July due to Import duty cuts being announced during the Budget in July this year.
“The same (import duty cuts) was done to tackle smuggling in India as reports from the Union finance ministry indicated smuggling of gold touched a four year high in FY ’23 with more than 4000 Kg of Gold being seized in the fiscal year,” said Naveen Mathur, Director – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.
Despite the international prices (including LBMA benchmark) seen rising by more than 9% since 23rd July, the Budget day, local prices were unable to catch up to the same, indicating physical demand not getting picked up at the same pace.
Mathur believes that this indicates that the rally in prices since 23rd July 2024 is being driven by western investor demand including speculative activities on COMEX.
While commenting on the short-term outlook for the precious metal, Mathur said that the overall prices shows no signs of correction as of now, as a weaker dollar and an escalated geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to lift bullion’s safe-haven appeal, while investors brace themselves for new signals on the US interest rate trajectory in near term.
Also, China resorting to rate cuts recently to boost its stock markets amid building up its efforts to achieve its 5 % growth target may lead to further positive sentiments in precious metals especially in Silver.
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