In this video, I take a look at the three major commodity currency pairs vs the USD: The AUDUSD, USDCAD and NZDUSD.
The AUDUSD has been testing swing highs going back to June and July 2023 both yesterday and today. Yesterday the price moved above does highs between 0.68947 and 0.68997, but could not sustain momentum and rotated back to the downside.
The move lower took the price to the broken 61.8% retracement of the move down from the February 2023 high today October 2023 low at 0.6818 and buyers reentered and pushed the price back up to retest the highs from yesterday again. IN the new day getting above the 0.6900 level and stay above that level would open the door for further upside probing.
For the USDCAD, yesterday support held near 1.3412 and 1.3419. The subsequent move to the upside today price to a swing area target near 1.3486 where sellers have entered. A pair currently trades between close support below at 1.3465 and the aforementioned resistance above the 1.34865. Moving outside that range in the new trading day will define the bias going into the last day of the week.
The NZDUSD – like the AUDUSD – fell sharply yesterday. For the NZDUSD it fell below the rising 100 hour MA (currently at 0.62830). The fall took the price to and briefly through the 38.2% of the move up from the September low at 0.6258 before starting the run back higher. What was key for the buyers on the bounce today, was that after breaking above the 100 hour MA, the price retested that MA and ran higher.
We are now trading at session highs but unlike the AUDUSD still short of the high from yesterday at 0.6353. In the new day, the price will need to get above that level to increase the bullish bias. Close risk for buyers is at 0.6298 and below that, the rising 100 hour MA at 0.6283.