Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that Fed officials are finally beginning to catch up with the broader market’s view that the time has come for movement from the US central bank on policy rates, but downplayed discussion of a larger opening cut in September.
Key highlights
The job market is slowing down.
Today’s employment data is a continuation of what we’ve been seeing.
It raises some serious questions about this meeting and next several months that we make sure not to make labor market turn into something worse.
There is a overwhelming Fed consensus for multiple rate cuts.
When asked about bigger rate cuts: Look at the dot plots, which didn’t show inflation coming down as fast or unemployment rising so high.
When asked about 50 bps cut in September: What happens at next meeting alone is not what is most important.
The current employment average is too low for replacement rate.
We have a little more tolerance for an upside surprise on CPI as the longer arc shows inflation coming down.
I am concerned if we maintain this level of restrictiveness, the odds of recession might be rising.